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Silver has surged past $40/oz for the first time since 2011, up 40% YTD versus gold’s 35%. Persistent supply deficits, strong investor flows, and silver’s high beta to gold support further upside. Tariff uncertainty has distorted markets, while USGS’s draft Critical Minerals List highlights silver’s importance.
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Silver has surged past $40/oz for the first time since 2011, up 40% YTD versus gold’s 35%. Persistent supply deficits, strong investor flows, and silver’s high beta to gold support further upside. Tariff uncertainty has distorted markets, while USGS’s draft Critical Minerals List highlights silver’s importance.
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Platinum has surged 46 % YTD to US$1,200/oz as the market faces a third straight annual deficit. South-African mine output is sliding, recycling can’t bridge the gap, and above-ground stocks are at eight-year lows. Demand is broadening: Chinese jewellers are switching away from costlier gold, and Proton Exchange Membrane electrolysis (PEM), which is platinum-intensive is gaining traction.
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The gold-to-silver ratio has now exceeded 100 for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020—two standard deviations above the long-term average since 1990. Historically, such deviations have indicated strong catch-up potential for silver.
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In the Year of the Snake, we seek ‘antivenoms’ against risks like trade wars, a strong US dollar, and China's economic struggles. We see strong opportunities in gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc, and European natural gas, which have resilient drivers. As policies clarify, fears may ease, leading to a relief rally. Until then, we rely on these protective investments.
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As we continue our reflection on 2024’s strong performers and their outlook for 2025, part 2 of this two-part series explores silver, cyber security and a barbell approach to investing in US large cap quality and value.
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Wir schreiben ein olympisches Jahr – und die Goldmedaille geht an Silber. Silber hat alle Metalle übertroffen, und unseres Erachtens wird auch das kommende Jahr sehr positiv für Silber sein, da die Industrienachfrage nach dem Metall seiner engen Korrelation mit Gold zusätzlichen Rückenwind verleiht.
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