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Corn prices have stabilized above $4 as the USDA’s latest monthly report cut yield estimates but raised exports to a record 3bn bushels, reflecting strong early-season demand. Despite record acreage, the balance is tightening slightly. If yields dip further and export strength holds, prices could trend higher.
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Corn prices have stabilized above $4 as the USDA’s latest monthly report cut yield estimates but raised exports to a record 3bn bushels, reflecting strong early-season demand. Despite record acreage, the balance is tightening slightly. If yields dip further and export strength holds, prices could trend higher.
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Arabica coffee prices have hit record highs, fuelled by drought in Brazil, speculative trading, and supply constraints. The biennial crop cycle and La Niña may worsen shortages, while EU regulations drive pre-emptive stockpiling. Though volatility remains, analysts expect a potential price correction by late 2025 if weather conditions improve.
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The conclusion of the 2023/24 El Nino event is now giving way for the likely return of the climate phenomenon La Nina. During La Nina, the tropical Pacific Ocean is cooler than average, putting in motion a series of potential impacts, from stronger rains in Asia to drier conditions in South America. La Nina could therefore provide an upside price boost for several agricultural commodities.
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Commodities may have hit peak bearishness, with investor sentiment at a five-year low. Could this signal the start of a new cyclical upswing? In this blog, we explore opportunities in industrial metals, energy, precious metals, and agriculture and highlight key factors that could drive a turnaround in investor sentiment.
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Over the past year agricultural commodities performance has bifurcated with soft commodities (cocoa and coffee) driving performance higher while grains (wheat, corn, soybean) lagging in performance. However, the grains sector is showing signs of recovery following nearly two years of losses. The market remains focussed on the weather. Wheat is showing optimistic signs of recovery amidst the outlook for a weaker Russian wheat crop.
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After a relatively lacklustre performance over the past year, grains are showing a ray of light following the release of the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. In USDA’s first estimates for the 2024/25 marketing year, wheat and corn ending stocks for both US and the global balance came in below expectations fuelling a rally for wheat and corn prices.
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