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Corn prices have stabilized above $4 as the USDA’s latest monthly report cut yield estimates but raised exports to a record 3bn bushels, reflecting strong early-season demand. Despite record acreage, the balance is tightening slightly. If yields dip further and export strength holds, prices could trend higher.
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Corn prices have stabilized above $4 as the USDA’s latest monthly report cut yield estimates but raised exports to a record 3bn bushels, reflecting strong early-season demand. Despite record acreage, the balance is tightening slightly. If yields dip further and export strength holds, prices could trend higher.
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Les prix du café arabica ont atteint des records, stimulés par la sécheresse au Brésil, les opérations spéculatives et les contraintes d’approvisionnement. Le cycle biennal de cette culture et La Niña sont susceptibles d’aggraver les pénuries, tandis que les règlements de l’UE pourraient inciter au stockage préventif. Bien que les prix restent volatils, ils devraient baisser d’ici fin 2025 si les conditions météorologiques s’améliorent.
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The conclusion of the 2023/24 El Nino event is now giving way for the likely return of the climate phenomenon La Nina. During La Nina, the tropical Pacific Ocean is cooler than average, putting in motion a series of potential impacts, from stronger rains in Asia to drier conditions in South America. La Nina could therefore provide an upside price boost for several agricultural commodities.
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Commodities may have hit peak bearishness, with investor sentiment at a five-year low. Could this signal the start of a new cyclical upswing? In this blog, we explore opportunities in industrial metals, energy, precious metals, and agriculture and highlight key factors that could drive a turnaround in investor sentiment.
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Over the past year agricultural commodities performance has bifurcated with soft commodities (cocoa and coffee) driving performance higher while grains (wheat, corn, soybean) lagging in performance. However, the grains sector is showing signs of recovery following nearly two years of losses. The market remains focussed on the weather. Wheat is showing optimistic signs of recovery amidst the outlook for a weaker Russian wheat crop.
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After a relatively lacklustre performance over the past year, grains are showing a ray of light following the release of the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. In USDA’s first estimates for the 2024/25 marketing year, wheat and corn ending stocks for both US and the global balance came in below expectations fuelling a rally for wheat and corn prices.
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